10 Ways to Avoid Losing Money in Forex

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

My girlfriend of 8 years admitted she cheated on me with a close friend (messy)

So, since I'm here I suppose I should give some backstory. This will probably get lengthy so ill put a tl;dr at the bottom.
I (M/23) started dating my (ex)girlfriend (We'll call her C; F/23) since sophomore year in high school. We were the textbook "high school sweethearts". Fast forward thru 6 years of good, bad and everything in between; having 2 two kids and dealing with a miscarriage, etc... we essentially were a married couple without the title, and we pretty much operated as such. (ironically enough i was planning on proposing to her the week after d-day..)
Now the last year or so me and C had been hanging out with one of my close friends (we'll call him J) and his girlfriend (S); who also have two kids together. Me and J had known each other for years, but hadn't talked much recently so it was cool to catch up; and S and my girlfriend C became friends quickly, as well as our children. At this point we are like family to each other, we went on vacations together, playdates, babysat for each other etc.
Now, the past few months before d-day, C started to show telltale signs of cheating (now that I look back).. but due to the fact that she has severe bipolar disorder which she is prescribed medication for (but she did not take it regularly), it was hard for me to fully gauge what was going on; because manic depressive episodes can exhibit wild symptoms that eerily align with cheating behavior (i know, i pick em great right). So I was concerned; but moreso for her mental well being, than for what I was about to discover in the near future.
Here's where things get hairy.
(D-Day) So I get ready leave the house to do uber eats. I do this part time to pay the bills, I've been learning to trade forex for the last few months so I needed something that could free up time. Anyway, before I leave C asks me for a kiss, I kiss her and the kids and then I head out... No less than 20 minutes after I left, I check my phone and see a string of messages from C, and then I get a call from her. When I answer the phone she's already crying. She tells me that about two months ago her and J fucked. She tells me that J told her I would run off and fuck other girls and meet up with them on some dating app on my phone. None of which is true, for the record. He essentially fed her a bunch of bullshit, and she blindly accepted it as truth. She claims she fucked him to get "revenge" at me for everything I ever "did" (even though as far as infidelity goes, I did nothing). C destroyed our relationship, family, and her friendship with S, all off of hearsay. J helped mastermind it all, and also destroyed our friendship, along with his relationship with S. Worst part is, I was hitting J up the 2 weeks before D-Day to chill, and he wouldn't even respond. Making me look like an even bigger clown. I reacted in pure rage, said some things I probably shouldn't have in the heat of the moment, and then told her to get her shit out of my house.
She of course at this point is hysterical and is screaming through tears for me to not leave her, that she wants to save our family, that it only happened once and there was no feelings involved beyond her trying to get back at me. At this point though I just don't know if I can believe it. both C and J disrespected me to the ABSOLUTE highest level, not only me but also S. They orchestrated a whole plan to make it happen and then hid it for 2 months. She did also come to me and admit it on her own. Not that that excuses it AT ALL, but my thinking is, in reality I could've found out in worse ways than her direct admission.
I'm so torn here reddit. I love this girl to death, and want nothing more than to save our family. I grew up in a split home and i saw and heard things I shouldn't have, and i remember the depression i went through during that time.. i dont want that for my kids..
BUT I also know that I've NEVER been betrayed like this before in my life, not only by an SO but a friend as well. I'm completely heartbroken, and I've had hurt in the past but I've never felt true heartbreak like I do right now. Im doing my best to avoid contacting her, but we have two kids so it makes it really hard at times.. ive been learning to focus on me, but I have to literally keep my mind preoccupied 110% of the time, or I start to go into the same thought loops about this whole situation :(.
Do I give the love of my life a second chance after something like this? For the sake of my family? I know I have zero trust for her, and i understand that if we EVER were to rekindle something in the future, it will be a long time, if ever before the pain goes away. it will not be the same as before, we will be starting from scratch. I just would like advice on if there's anything worth saving or not.
If so, what signs should I be looking for thats shes actually invested in making things right?
If not, how do i start this healing process and begin to move on from an 8 year investment and a now dysfunctional family? Because I'm so fucking lost right now guys.
Thanks for reading all the way to the end, I dropped tears writing this and any advice is appreciated.
**UPDATE 9/20
C is out out the house now. Ironically she's already moved into a new apartment. I'm not dumb and I know 9 times out of 10 you don't just find an new apartment in a single day.. maybe my paranoia but probably not honestly. Ive been avoiding contact with her beyond child related things.
I tried to contact S, but Ironically her phone was broken in the fight her and J had... she tried to message me on Facebook the night I found out to help her move her daughter dressed into a storage unit, but I was physically weak and couldn't even think of what to say in response at that time. Not that she did anything wrong at all. At this point S has removed herself from Facebook so I'm trying to figure out another way to get ahold of her to try to get extra insight. Will post another update if/when I get more details.
C tried to "shit test" me today, and since we're now apart i could see it blind as day. She FaceTimed me, I normally would've ignored but i can see my daughter on the preview so i answer. C claims the kids wanted to talk to me, but they seemed relatively uninterested when I tried. Which no big deal, but its what came next that was so weird. What im talking about is her making a comment on a new vape i just got. How it was "so cool" and she wanted to see me take a drag off it again. This is significant only because I KNOW from being with her for 8 years that it turns her on to see me do smoke tricks. That's just always been her. On top of that, she kept taking the camera off the kids, and trying to talk to me about things that happened in her day indirectly. I kept it brief and told her i was busy before she could drag it on.. WHY IS SHE DOING THIS? This is fucking with my head even more now..
ALSO today I was working on music and I went into my downloads folder and noticed something called "J's App". Its date modified is 8/11. This lines up with the timeline C gave me which made me sick to my stomach. I open it, fully prepared to find some type of cynical cheating app they were using to sneak around on me with...
Turns out its an application for some ged boot camp for high-school drop outs. This girl had the NERVE to let this fucking bum use my laptop to apply for this shit?! I now certainly question the length of their relationship and the details behind it. For now, im going to continue with space and avoiding contact but I will be sitting down with C next week to lay everything on the table. Full truths, full openness, adult discussion no kid games. At that point ill either have closure to know the truth (or as much as I can get of it), or know if there's any chance of redemption, which at this point has went from 25% to 5%.
Thank you all sooo much for your advice and support during this; Alot of hard pills to swallow right now but its what I need. You guys are foreal a family to me and I will be here to support anyone here, new or old thats ever had to feel the way i feel right now.
Tl;dr my girlfriend of 8 years and mother of my 2 kids had an ONS with my friend, who is(was) dating her best friend. Now she wants to work things out
submitted by iknowalotaboutdrugs to survivinginfidelity [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking

Former investment bank FX trader: news trading and second order thinking
Thanks to everyone who responded to the previous pieces on risk management. We ended up with nearly 2,000 upvotes and I'm delighted so many of you found it useful.
This time we're going to focus on a new area: reacting to and trading around news and fundamental developments.
A lot of people get this totally wrong and the main reason is that they trade the news at face value, without considering what the market had already priced in. If you've ever seen what you consider to be "good" or "better than forecast" news come out and yet been confused as the pair did nothing or moved in the opposite direction to expected, read on...
We are going to do this in two parts.
Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use an economic calendar
  • How to read the calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Rates decisions
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking

Introduction

Knowing how to use and benefit from the economic calendar is key for all traders - not just news traders.
In this chapter we are going to take a practical look at how to use the economic calendar. We are also going to look at how to interpret news using second order thinking.
The key concept is learning what has already been ‘priced in’ by the market so we can estimate how the market price might react to the new information.

Why use an economic calendar

The economic calendar contains all the scheduled economic releases for that day and week. Even if you purely trade based on technical analysis, you still must know what is in store.

https://preview.redd.it/20xdiq6gq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=6cd47186db1039be7df4d7ad6782de36da48f1db
Why? Three main reasons.
Firstly, releases can help provide direction. They create trends. For example if GBPUSD has been fluctuating aimlessly within a range and suddenly the Bank of England starts raising rates you better believe the British Pound will start to move. Big news events often start long-term trends which you can trade around.
Secondly, a lot of the volatility occurs around these events. This is because these events give the market new information. Prior to a big scheduled release like the US Non Farm Payrolls you might find no one wants to take a big position. After it is released the market may move violently and potentially not just in a single direction - often prices may overshoot and come back down. Even without a trend this volatility provides lots of trading opportunities for the day trader.

https://preview.redd.it/u17iwbhiq4k51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=98ea8ed154c9468cb62037668c38e7387f2435af
Finally, these releases can change trends. Going into a huge release because of a technical indicator makes little sense. Everything could reverse and stop you out in a moment. You need to be aware of which events are likely to influence the positions you have on so you can decide whether to keep the positions or flatten exposure before the binary event for which you have no edge.
Most traders will therefore ‘scan’ the calendar for the week ahead, noting what the big events are and when they will occur. Then you can focus on each day at a time.

Reading the economic calendar


Most calendars show events cut by trading day. Helpfully they adjust the time of each release to your own timezone. For example we can see that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision is happening at 4am local time for this particular London-based trader.

https://preview.redd.it/lmx0q9qoq4k51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c6e9e1533b1ba236e51296de8db3be55dfa78ba1

Note that some events do not happen at a specific time. Think of a Central Banker’s speech for example - this can go on for an hour. It is not like an economic statistic that gets released at a precise time. Clicking the finger emoji will open up additional information on each event.

Event importance

How do you define importance? Well, some events are always unimportant. With the greatest of respect to Italian farmers, nobody cares about mundane releases like Italian farm productivity figures.
Other events always seem to be important. That means, markets consistently react to them and prices move. Interest rate decisions are an example of consistently high importance events.
So the Medium and High can be thought of as guides to how much each event typically affects markets. They are not perfect guides, however, as different events are more or less important depending on the circumstances.
For example, imagine the UK economy was undergoing a consumer-led recovery. The Central Bank has said it would raise interest rates (making GBPUSD move higher) if they feel the consumer is confident.
Consumer confidence data would suddenly become an extremely important event. At other times, when the Central Bank has not said it is focused on the consumer, this release might be near irrelevant.

Knowing what's priced in

Next to each piece of economic data you can normally see three figures. Actual, Forecast, and Previous.
  • Actual refers to the number as it is released.
  • Forecast refers to the consensus estimate from analysts.
  • Previous is what it was last time.
We are going to look at this in a bit more detail later but what you care about is when numbers are better or worse than expected. Whether a number is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ really does not matter much. Yes, really.

Once you understand that markets move based on the news vs expectations, you will be less confused by price action around events

This is a common misunderstanding. Say everyone is expecting ‘great’ economic data and it comes out as ‘good’. Does the price go up?
You might think it should. After all, the economic data was good. However, everyone expected it to be great and it was just … good. The great release was ‘priced in’ by the market already. Most likely the price will be disappointed and go down.
By priced in we simply mean that the market expected it and already bought or sold. The information was already in the price before the announcement.
Incidentally the official forecasts can be pretty stale and might not accurately capture what active traders in the market expect. See the following example.

An example of pricing in

For example, let’s say the market is focused on the number of Tesla deliveries. Analysts think it’ll be 100,000 this quarter. But Elon Musk tweets something that hints he’s really, really, really looking forward to the analyst call. Tesla’s price ticks higher after the tweet as traders put on positions, reflecting the sentiment that Tesla is likely to massively beat the 100,000. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Tesla deliveries are up hugely vs last quarter ... but they are disappointing vs market expectations ... what do you think will happen to the stock?

On the day it turns out Tesla hit 101,000. A better than the officially forecasted result - sure - but only marginally. Way below what readers of Musk's twitter account might have thought. Disappointed traders may sell their longs and close out the positions. The stock might go down on ‘good’ results because the market had priced in something even better. (This example is not a real one - it just serves to illustrate the concept.)

Surveys

It can be a little hard to know what the market really expects. Often the published forecasts are stale and do not reflect what actual traders and investors are looking for.
One of the most effective ways is a simple survey of investors. Something like a Twitter poll like this one from CNBC is freely available and not a bad barometer.
CNBC, Bloomberg and other business TV stations often have polls on their Twitter accounts that let you know what others are expecting

Interest rates decisions

We know that interest rates heavily affect currency prices.
For major interest rate decisions there’s a great tool on the CME’s website that you can use.

See the link for a demo

This gives you a % probability of each interest rate level, implied by traded prices in the bond futures market. For example, in the case above the market thinks there’s a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates to 75-100bp.
Obviously this is far more accurate than analyst estimates because it uses actual bond prices where market participants are directly taking risk and placing bets. It basically looks at what interest rate traders are willing to lend at just before/after the date of the central bank meeting to imply the odds that the market ascribes to a change on that date.
Always try to estimate what the market has priced in. That way you have some context for whether the release really was better or worse than expected.

Second order thinking

You have to know what the market expects to try and guess how it’ll react. This is referred to by Howard Marks of Oaktree as second-level thinking. His explanation is so clear I am going to quote extensively.
It really is hard to improve on this clarity of thought:
First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it (a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority). All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in “The outlook for the company is favorable, meaning the stock will go up.” Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted.
Howard Marks
He explains first-level thinking:
The first-level thinker simply looks for the highest quality company, the best product, the fastest earnings growth or the lowest p/e ratio. He’s ignorant of the very existence of a second level at which to think, and of the need to pursue it.
Howard Marks
The above describes the guy who sees a 101,000 result and buys Tesla stock because - hey, this beat expectations. Marks goes on to describe second-level thinking:
The second-level thinker goes through a much more complex process when thinking about buying an asset. Is it good? Do others think it’s as good as I think it is? Is it really as good as I think it is? Is it as good as others think it is? Is it as good as others think others think it is? How will it change? How do others think it will change? How is it priced given: its current condition; how do I think its conditions will change; how others think it will change; and how others think others think it will change? And that’s just the beginning. No, this isn’t easy.
Howard Marks
In this version of events you are always thinking about the market’s response to Tesla results.
What do you think they’ll announce? What has the market priced in? Is Musk reliable? Are the people who bought because of his tweet likely to hold on if he disappoints or exit immediately? If it goes up at which price will they take profit? How big a number is now considered ‘wow’ by the market?
As Marks says: not easy. However, you need to start getting into the habit of thinking like this if you want to beat the market. You can make gameplans in advance for various scenarios.
Here are some examples from Marks to illustrate the difference between first order and second order thinking.

Some further examples
Trying to react fast to headlines is impossible in today’s market of ultra fast computers. You will never win on speed. Therefore you have to out-think the average participant.

Coming up in part II

Now that we have a basic understanding of concepts such as expectations and what the market has priced in, we can look at some interesting trading techniques and tools.
Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The trimming position effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
Hope you enjoyed this note. As always, please reply with any questions/feedback - it is fun to hear from you.
***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

I started the babypips course but maybe forex isn’t for me

I’ve been working with stocks for about two years. I haven’t really been too involved besides small trades here and there, and trying to educate myself in it.
I recently found forex and wanted to give it a try. It seems more difficult to me than stocks probaly are?
I was mainly interested in leverage, but now I see how risky that can be. At the same time very profitable.
Should I just stick to stocks? What I’m mainly looking for is to be able to leave my money without having to look at it, but also be able to make trades that can turn out to be very profitable. That sorta sounds like stock investing and stock options.
Anyways. Idk the purpose of this post. I guess I’m sorta looking for a reason to continue with babypips or forex in general. Motivation. Or a purpose. I’ve understood everything thus far but am exhausted just 8 lessons in.
I know the main benefits over stocks. More liquidity, 24.5, leverage.
For those who did stocks, why did you move to forex?? And is the general consensus that stocks or forex is easier to learn?
submitted by em23942 to Forex [link] [comments]

THROW YOUR FD's in FDS

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down:
https://preview.redd.it/frmtdk8e9hk51.png?width=276&format=png&auto=webp&s=1c0ff12539e0b2f9dbfda13d0565c5ce2b6f8f1a

https://preview.redd.it/6axdb6lh9hk51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af1673272a5a2d8df28f60f4707e948a00e5ff1
FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp
https://preview.redd.it/yo71y6qj9hk51.png?width=355&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9414bdaa03c06114ca052304a26fae2773c3e45

FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:

https://preview.redd.it/oxaa1wel9hk51.png?width=443&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d60d2518980360c403364f7150392ab83d07d7
So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%
https://preview.redd.it/e4trju3p9hk51.png?width=387&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6bee15f836c47e73121054ec60459f147d353e

EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.
https://preview.redd.it/yl7f58tr9hk51.png?width=489&format=png&auto=webp&s=68906b9ecbcf6d886393c4ff40f81bdecab9e9fd

P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.

https://preview.redd.it/4mqw3t4t9hk51.png?width=445&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8d719f4913883b044c4150f11b8732e14797b6d
Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016
https://preview.redd.it/lt34avzu9hk51.png?width=441&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3742ed87cd1c2ccb7a3d3ee71ae8c7007313b2b

Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.
https://preview.redd.it/fliirmpx9hk51.png?width=370&format=png&auto=webp&s=1216eddeadb4f84c8f4f48692a2f962ba2f1e848

SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares
I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
submitted by WannabeStonks69 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Complying to a scammer, but not quite the way he wanted me to!

(To any moderator, I have anonymitised everything and made sure that it is according to rules of this subreddit,I wanna share this story so please let me know should further editing be required ! please Consider this person has likely stolen thousands and thousands of innocent people so i wanna spread awareness!
So the other day (actually my birthday too :)) I found this account on IG, I saved him as Scumm in my phone but he claims to be an "Alex", hit him up if you wanna get rich it is a fiest. So i hit him up and be like:
[19:00, 23/09/2020] OP: Hello sir I am Tom, I read a lot of things about Forex and crypto and your page in particular and just inherited some money from a relative , I heard so many good things I thought you might help me invest some of that money so it is not lost?
Kindly
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Welcome
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Where are you from?
[19:09, 23/09/2020] OP: Germany
[19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok Tom
[19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: We specialise on Stock And cryptocurrency trading, with the sole aim of making awesome profit from the rapid changes in price of the assets and currencies we trade. We are group of professional market analysts that studies the market picking the best assets to invest on, and as well the best cryptocurrency pairs to trade on. We have mastered risk management and as well best possible strategy to maximize our clients Profits
[19:10, 23/09/2020] Scumm: With the minimum investment of 1 BTC you can make 3.8BTC in a month
[19:11, 23/09/2020] Scumm: If I may ask do you have a Bitcoin Wallet address?
Now you can see how this is a scam and no one should ever follow such ludicrous claims! 380% in a month, if sb knew how, they wouldnt share that ,not in this world, not in this century... So i amlike:
[19:15, 23/09/2020] OP: I'd be willing to invest even 2 bitcoin but I would need your company credentials and iban to send money to
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I can only provide you a US account to make payment
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: This if gonna be possible
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Hmm I'll see maybe that works
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Easiest would be IBAN
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Your company does not have any European bank accounts?
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: IBAN
[19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Mate I always follow procedures so I have not accept Transfer for deposit
[19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: But I will see to that ok
You see where this is going I want some info and make him believe he or one of his mules at least gets sweet sweet cash. NOT SO FAST
[20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I’m waiting on my Colleague to forward details to me now
[20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok so you are not sending today?
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: Thank u so much
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: I can try but I have to call bank
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: For over 1000
[20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate
[20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Good
[21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: XXXXXX XXXXXXXX
XXX Bank
Account number: 8XXXXX0
Sort code: XXXX
IBAN: GBXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
[21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you there Mate?
[22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Yes hi thank u so much
[22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Let me chdck
[22:46, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[22:53, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you trying to send it now mate?
Spinning it furtherly: I just tell some yada yada about how it takes time and a signature since its such a large sum!
[11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: Do you have license
[11:46, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 25BTC too small for even my students 😂 /\SURE buddy! */*
[11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: NASAA 67?
[11:47, 24/09/2020] OP: For financial advisor
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: This
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry was upside down
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: ?
[11:51, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I’m an independent expert trader and portfolio management in crypto market
[11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: License only met to give out from head of Admin
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: Ah kk
[11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes mate
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: But normally 67 and 68 is required
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: For normal managers?
[11:53, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes
[11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: have no worries mate
[11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 100%
Now this is quite interesting NASAA 65 and 66 are licenses needed to be an account manager in the US so if he was he should know that i just made up 67 and 68!
[19:20, 24/09/2020] OP: Ill makethe first payment asap, but i cant make my bank go faster sorry
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: howeverone thing:
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: most of the moneyigotis still in USD isit possible u said invest and send to USbank too?
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: for 20kUSD and above
[19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: its hard for me topurhcase that much bitcoin on my own right now
[19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: but i see that i can trust you!
[19:22, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Mate ASAP you said you make payment today and you didn’t so I don’t know if you even sure about this yet
[19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I don’t get you please
[19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You mean you want your profit sent to a US bank?
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You have no worries about that mate
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I signed the paper mate I am so happy
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: That's all they need I told u
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: To make payments international so large
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yeah you said that mate
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am beeing honest as well
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: So I sent it back by post Today
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: But I am not at my banks city so post takes 1-2 days and then they can release
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry to keep u waiting
[19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Oh I see
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: No what I meant: if I wanna start with more can j invest 20k USD too? I know u usually don't do and j ask very weird questions but I meant
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: I am not always home have pc etc but I am in contact with u and my bank
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: So is it possible? Otherwise I have to convert USD to euro or GDP
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: 40k is sill in USD I have
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: That would be even crazier profits 🤑🤑🤑
[19:27, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Now I’m understanding
SO NOW HE IS UNDERSTANDING good good, and almost ready to screw one of his US mules too:
[21:00, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[21:04, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Can they send from US to the IBAN account?
[21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: Hm I don't know it's a bit tricky BC I'm no us citizen
[21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: I have one iban authorised to cash all out in euro
[21:05, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate
[21:06, 24/09/2020] OP: And US I think right now
[21:06, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate please hold
[21:10, 24/09/2020] OP Sure man
[21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: Uff such a huge step for me
[21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: I hope u do it real good 🤑🤑🤑
[21:12, 24/09/2020] OP Do you have customers in US too?
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Bank name: Teachers Federal Credit Union
Bank address: XXXXXXX
Account holder: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Account Holders address:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX
Routing Number: XXXXXXX
Account number:XXXXXXXXXX
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Sure mate //SO HE CLAIMS TO HAVE SCAMMED US CITIZENS!
[21:12, 24/09/2020] OP: Nice
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Please make sure you send confirmation immediately
So finally I did not send him payment proof,I sent him a spoofed link to fetch his IP with a link to "payment proof" and got his IP and location (cant showr a real link bc it has my IP in it...) And was like " oh hey how is the whether in Irele, Nigeria??"
Needless to say he blocked me straight away after I called him a disgraceful sc*m but hey..... I still called the corresponding banks, the UK Fraud Action and the FBI just to make sure and shared all of the details without any editting :)
Have fun "mate"! If they can freeze only 1 $ and return it to a likely victim, I am more then happy
Cheers dont get scammed!
TL/DR: Scammed a Nigerian scammer into sending me real accounts, names and details in UK and US (mules) to forward to the police and may or may not have donated 500 to charity.
submitted by elyminas to scambait [link] [comments]

Need advice/direction/understanding please!

Hello! I am new to the general spectrum of e-commerce and passive income. This will be a relatively long post, so you can understand my situation. I am 18 years old and live in a dorm at Georgia State University in downtown Atlanta. I'm interested in passive income, because a life goal of mine is to be financially sustainable without that dreadful and desperate struggle to stay afloat. I've worked in a restaurant/bar and Chick-Fil-A. I like to take opportunities to grow and I'm an extremely hard worker who's tackled many personal challenges, but these experiences always ended up d r e a d f u l for my mental health. I wish I could adapt to the physical job norm, but my personality strengths don't align with that particular field. I am currently studying business at Georgia State and have a good head start. I also have a good amount of savings in my bank account, setting me up for my journey. I am hoping to have some form of reliable income by the end of the school year in May. I have a passion to devoting myself to this work ONLY if it pays. This situation could be even more perfect for me considering my girlfriends dad owns his own small marketing company and has some decently large clients. My girlfriend's parents are also great friends with a man who literally went from dirt poor to being able to support a large family and more through marketing and he owns his own company and offers marketing internships from his company to GSU students.
To reiterate, I have nothing but time, savings, and extreme hard work to make passive income pay off and there is nothing I want more than that financial freedom from terrible jobs for people my age. I will devote my time, but only if it is worth it.
Here is where I need help. I don't want to end up spending all my money instead of using it for larger gain. I'm all for using money to grow, but I don't know where to go from there. Where should my research and time be allocated in this case? I've researched hours and hours of different sources such as Forex day trading (even my friend is making decent profits with Forex from some like $200 dollar course?!?!), and drop shipping, but seem to hit a brick wall with how much I know on the subject. Do I sacrifice more hours learning youtube and various different forms or income, or do I sacrifice more hours in one particular course or subject? I am VERY on the fence when it comes to these kinds of decisions, only because I want to make the right one. I'm fine with slowly losing a little money to gain experience, but a payment like that sure seems like a leap of faith(right?). I don't necessarily understand how to explain this business model either. I feel scared to talk about it because I understand how the profits occur, but it is the difficult talents you must possess that I do not have. I want to be able to talk about my business pursuit with my parents and have full knowledge and confidence in that what I'm doing is right. The businesses you can start through passive income are possible to be profitable, but how often does that happen and is it REALISTIC that my time I invest into this is worth it? I would hate to throw away a fantastic economic opportunity. I just need to know what direction I should be going towards considering my connections and situation. I lack the confidence to jump in, as I understand I must gain more knowledge. Another issue I face is I need to know where my knowledge and studying should be allocated. I need to know what works and how I can get there. I believe I am capable of anything as I am an extremely high achiever and have always worked hard on the things I'm passionate about. Thinking about my loved ones I'm doing this for only motivates me more and I want to prove to others that I can persevere.

If you read this entire thread.. thank you so much for your time. I promise you you've found the correct and capable person, but where do I go from here? I don't mean to sound cocky in any way shape or form, as I am just very ready to take initiative of my extra time so I don't wait around until I get a potentially crap job with low pay. I appreciate this community and I'm looking forward to hopefully getting to build connections and grow.

Lastly- I would love links, video advice, emails, and anything else to help out my education on this!
Again, thank you so much and have a wonderful day.
submitted by Environmental_Spot63 to passive_income [link] [comments]

Complying to a scammer... until i dont!

(To any moderator, I have anonymitised everything and made sure that it is according to rules of this subreddit,I wanna share this story so please let me know should further editing be required ! please Consider this person has likely stolen thousands and thousands of innocent people so i wanna spread awareness!
So the other day (actually my birthday too :)) I found this account on IG, I saved him as Scumm in my phone but he claims to be an "Alex", hit him up if you wanna get rich it is a fiest. So i hit him up and be like:
[19:00, 23/09/2020] OP: Hello sir I am Tom, I read a lot of things about Forex and crypto and your page in particular and just inherited some money from a relative , I heard so many good things I thought you might help me invest some of that money so it is not lost?
Kindly
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Welcome
[19:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Where are you from?
[19:09, 23/09/2020] OP: Germany
[19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok Tom
[19:09, 23/09/2020] Scumm: We specialise on Stock And cryptocurrency trading, with the sole aim of making awesome profit from the rapid changes in price of the assets and currencies we trade. We are group of professional market analysts that studies the market picking the best assets to invest on, and as well the best cryptocurrency pairs to trade on. We have mastered risk management and as well best possible strategy to maximize our clients Profits
[19:10, 23/09/2020] Scumm: With the minimum investment of 1 BTC you can make 3.8BTC in a month
[19:11, 23/09/2020] Scumm: If I may ask do you have a Bitcoin Wallet address?
Now you can see how this is a scam and no one should ever follow such ludicrous claims! 380% in a month, if sb knew how, they wouldnt share that ,not in this world, not in this century... So i amlike:
[19:15, 23/09/2020] OP: I'd be willing to invest even 2 bitcoin but I would need your company credentials and iban to send money to
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I can only provide you a US account to make payment
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: This if gonna be possible
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Hmm I'll see maybe that works
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Easiest would be IBAN
[19:19, 23/09/2020] OP: Your company does not have any European bank accounts?
[19:19, 23/09/2020] Scumm: IBAN
[19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Mate I always follow procedures so I have not accept Transfer for deposit
[19:20, 23/09/2020] Scumm: But I will see to that ok
You see where this is going I want some info and make him believe he or one of his mules at least gets sweet sweet cash. NOT SO FAST
[20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: I’m waiting on my Colleague to forward details to me now
[20:49, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok so you are not sending today?
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: Thank u so much
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: I can try but I have to call bank
[20:49, 23/09/2020] OP: For over 1000
[20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate
[20:50, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Good
[21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: XXXXXX XXXXXXXX
XXX Bank
Account number: 8XXXXX0
Sort code: XXXX
IBAN: GBXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
[21:08, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you there Mate?
[22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Yes hi thank u so much
[22:43, 23/09/2020] OP: Let me chdck
[22:46, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[22:53, 23/09/2020] Scumm: Are you trying to send it now mate?
Spinning it furtherly: I just tell some yada yada about how it takes time and a signature since its such a large sum!
[11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: Do you have license
[11:46, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 25BTC too small for even my students 😂 /\SURE buddy! */*
[11:46, 24/09/2020] OP: NASAA 67?
[11:47, 24/09/2020] OP: For financial advisor
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: This
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry was upside down
[11:50, 24/09/2020] OP: ?
[11:51, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I’m an independent expert trader and portfolio management in crypto market
[11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: License only met to give out from head of Admin
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: Ah kk
[11:52, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes mate
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: But normally 67 and 68 is required
[11:52, 24/09/2020] OP: For normal managers?
[11:53, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yes
[11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: have no worries mate
[11:55, 24/09/2020] Scumm: 100%
Now this is quite interesting NASAA 65 and 66 are licenses needed to be an account manager in the US so if he was he should know that i just made up 67 and 68!
[19:20, 24/09/2020] OP: Ill makethe first payment asap, but i cant make my bank go faster sorry
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: howeverone thing:
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: most of the moneyigotis still in USD isit possible u said invest and send to USbank too?
[19:21, 24/09/2020] OP: for 20kUSD and above
[19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: its hard for me topurhcase that much bitcoin on my own right now
[19:22, 24/09/2020] OP: but i see that i can trust you!
[19:22, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Mate ASAP you said you make payment today and you didn’t so I don’t know if you even sure about this yet
[19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: I don’t get you please
[19:23, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You mean you want your profit sent to a US bank?
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: You have no worries about that mate
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I signed the paper mate I am so happy
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: That's all they need I told u
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: To make payments international so large
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Yeah you said that mate
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: I am beeing honest as well
[19:24, 24/09/2020] OP: So I sent it back by post Today
[19:24, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: But I am not at my banks city so post takes 1-2 days and then they can release
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: Sorry to keep u waiting
[19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[19:25, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Oh I see
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: No what I meant: if I wanna start with more can j invest 20k USD too? I know u usually don't do and j ask very weird questions but I meant
[19:25, 24/09/2020] OP: I am not always home have pc etc but I am in contact with u and my bank
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: So is it possible? Otherwise I have to convert USD to euro or GDP
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: 40k is sill in USD I have
[19:26, 24/09/2020] OP: That would be even crazier profits 🤑🤑🤑
[19:27, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Now I’m understanding
SO NOW HE IS UNDERSTANDING good good, and almost ready to screw one of his US mules too:
[21:00, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate
[21:04, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Can they send from US to the IBAN account?
[21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: Hm I don't know it's a bit tricky BC I'm no us citizen
[21:05, 24/09/2020] OGOP: I have one iban authorised to cash all out in euro
[21:05, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok ok mate
[21:06, 24/09/2020] OP: And US I think right now
[21:06, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Ok mate please hold
[21:10, 24/09/2020] OP Sure man
[21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: Uff such a huge step for me
[21:11, 24/09/2020] OP: I hope u do it real good 🤑🤑🤑
[21:12, 24/09/2020] OP Do you have customers in US too?
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Bank name: Teachers Federal Credit Union
Bank address: XXXXXXX
Account holder: XXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Account Holders address:
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX
Routing Number: XXXXXXX
Account number:XXXXXXXXXX
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Sure mate //SO HE CLAIMS TO HAVE SCAMMED US CITIZENS!
[21:12, 24/09/2020] OP: Nice
[21:12, 24/09/2020] Scumm: Please make sure you send confirmation immediately
So finally I did not send him payment proof,I sent him a spoofed link to fetch his IP with a link to "payment proof" and got his IP and location (cant showr a real link bc it has my IP in it...) And was like " oh hey how is the whether in Irele, Nigeria??"
Needless to say he blocked me straight away after I called him a disgraceful sc*m but hey..... I still called the corresponding banks, the UK Fraud Action and the FBI just to make sure and shared all of the details without any editting :)
Have fun "mate"! If they can freeze only 1 $ and return it to a likely victim, I am more then happy
Cheers dont get scammed! Have a wonderful day!
TL/DR: Scammed a Nigerian scammer into sending me real accounts, names and details in UK and US (mules) to forward to the police and may or may not have donated 500 to charity.
submitted by elyminas to Scams [link] [comments]

Education and training in trading are not needed: False - By Mickael Mosse

By: Mickael Mosse - Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Expert
Trading now is a common word in the financial field. But its meaning has myths and assumptions around it, viewing trading as an easy way to make money.
Mickael Mosse sees traders as professionals in the crypto world, and their practice as a great option to use cryptos.
📷
Trading is the opposite of investment because it aims to short-term goals following multiple market strategies enveloped by buy-and-hold timing. Its success as a financial profession depends on the ability to be profitable over time.
Now, traders can trade with assets like commodities or with cryptos; we will talk about the second one. Crypto trading could be:
Read more details of these crypto trading options here. What is cryptocurrency trading, and how does it work? by IG
Let’s demystify the next myth about crypto trading by Mickael Mosse’s explanations.
Education and training in trading are not needed; it is just a random thing.

FALSE

Begining to spend money without a formal education process in trading is a common way to lose your funds and blame the market.
There is a common belief that trading is a matter of luck. Still, the reality is that you must study theory to understand its bases and then go to practice in demo accounts before launch to the real market.
According to Mickael Mosse, it is essential to train your trading skills if you want a profit instead of losses, building a trading plan from the knowledge and not assumptions.
A key to start by Mickael Mosse: You could find education tools on broker websites; you can use them to begin theoretical training. A broker is an online platform intermediary between the trader and the market.
The market for trading with currencies is called Forex, the most liquid globally, with no centralized location. Instead, it is a digital network of financial agents such as banks, brokers, traders, and institutions.
SOURCE : https://entrepreneursbreak.com/education-and-training-in-trading-are-not-needed-false.html
_____ FOLLOW MICKAEL MOSSE ON SOCIAL NETWORK’s:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/MosseMickael
Medium: medium.com/@mickaelmosse
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mickael.mosse.39
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/useAccurate-Gap-8536
Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.com/mickaelmosse1/
Youtube : https://youtube.com/channel/UC1QAiUoz-Il-P1lhmUEvvvg
Ted : https://www.ted.com/profiles/23747131
submitted by Accurate-Gap-8536 to u/Accurate-Gap-8536 [link] [comments]

Crypto Forex Review - Crypto-Forex.Club Detailed Review

Crypto Forex Review - Crypto-Forex.Club Detailed Review
This review gives you all you need to know about crypto-forex.club. It also answers this important question; "Is Crypto forex a Scam?"
Have you traded/invested with Crypto Forex (crypto-forex.club) and believe you have been scammed by them? The great news is that you have a chance to get your money back. Many unregulated brokers have been found to scam traders. It’s our job to make sure you can fight back and get your money refunded. By simply reading this article, you are on the right path to recovering your money.
Image by Icons8_team from Pixabay
Is crypto-forex.club a scam or legit?
Crypto Forex has been suspected as a scam. We don’t recommend trade with them and if you are trading with Crypto Forex contact them immediately and try to get your fund out. If Crypto Forex has done the following, you have probably a victim of Crypto Forex crypto scam.
Reason to suspect a scam is in action:
  • The broker froze your account
  • The broker blocked your account
  • You cannot login back into your account
  • Money has been taken out from the account
  • The broker doesn’t take your calls
  • The broker shut down his website
  • You noticed the broker took money out from your bank account without your permission
  • The broker is offering you a bonus
  • The broker is offering you to fund more money into the account after you lost a large sum
Don't give up!! You can fight back and get all your lost funds refunded. All you have to do is send an email to - [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
Testimonial: How I Recovered My Money from Crypto Forex (crypto-forex.club) - By Mark
Crypto Forex is a SCAM, FRAUD, ROBBERY!DON'T BE FOOLED. LOOK AT THE PLANS, ALL FAKE! NEVER TRUST THIS WEBSITE. HE'll STEAL your MOnEY! NO DOUBT! I had a nasty experience with them, but was lucky Express Recovery Pro - [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) helped me get my money back.
submitted by Monique007 to todayspaper [link] [comments]

ASIC Regulation Thread - Regarding the proposed changes ( Australians effected the most )

I'm hopeless at formatting text, so if you think you can structure this post better take everything i write and put it into an easy to digest way. I'm just going to type out everything i know in text as fast as possible. I'm not a legal expert, I'm not somehow who understands every bit of information in the PDF's below, but i know I'm a retail trader that uses leverage to make profit which is why I'm posting this, in the hope that someone who can run a charge better than me, will.
Some of you are already aware of what might be happening, this is just a post to educate retail traders on changes that might be coming to certain brokers. This effects Australian Customers the most, but also effects those living in other countries that use Australian brokers, such as Pepperstone and others.
Last year in August 2019, ASIC ( Australian Securities and Investments Commission ) was concerned about retail traders going into Forex and Binary options without understanding these instruments properly and started sticking their noses in for tough regulation.
ASIC asked brokers and anyone with interest in the industry to write to them and explain what should and should not change from the changes they proposed, some of the proposed changes are very misguided and come from a lack of understanding exactly how OTC derivatives actually work.
I will provide the link to the paper further down so you can read it yourself and i will provide a link to all the submission made by all parties that sent submissions to ASIC, however the 2 main points of debate are:
1, To reduce the overall leverage available to retail traders to either 20:1 or 30:1. This means people who currently use leverage such as 100:1 to 500:1 and everything in between will be effected the most, even more so are those traders with relatively small accounts, meaning in order to get your foot in the door to trading you will need more capital for it to be viable.
^^ This point above is very important.
2, The removing of Binary options trading, which basically includes products like "Bet if gold will rise to this price in the next 30 seconds" This sort of stuff. So far from all the submissions from brokers and individuals nobody really cares if this changes as far as i know, though if you have concerns about this i would start voicing your disapproval. Though i would not waste your time here, all is pointing to this being eradicated completely with brokers also supporting the changes, I've never used such a product and know very little about them.
^^ This point above isn't very important and will probably be enforced in the future.
Still to this day i see retail traders not understanding leverage, they think of it as "dangerous and scary", it's not, position size is the real danger, not leverage. So ASIC is aiming to limit retail traders access to high leverage, they are claiming it is a way to protect traders who don't really understand what they are getting into by attacking leverage and not the real problem which is position size relative to your capital.
If it was truly about protecting retail traders from blowing up their accounts, they would look for ways to educate traders on "understanding position sizes and why it's important" rather than attacking leverage, but their goal is misguided or has an ulterior motive . I will give you a small example below.
EXAMPLE - We will use 2 demo accounts for demonstration purposes. If you don't understand my example, i suggest you try it for yourself. - Skip if not interested in examples.
Lets say we open 2 demo accounts with $1000 in both, one with 20:1 leverage and one with 500:1 leverage and we open an identical position on both accounts ( say a micro lot '0.01' on EURUSD ). You are safer on the 500:1 account as you don't need to put up as much margin as collateral as you would on the 20:1. If the trade we just opened goes against us and continues against us, the account with 20:1 leverage will run out of free margin a lot faster than the 500:1 account. In this simple example is shows you that leverage is not dangerous but safer and gives you a lot more breathing room. This trade was a small micro lot, so it would take hundreds of pips movements to get margin called and blow up that $1000 on each account. Lets now use a different position size to truly understand why retail traders blow up accounts and is the reason why trading can be dangerous.
This time instead of opening a micro lot of '0.01' on our $1000 dollar demo accounts, lets open a position size much larger, 5 lots. Remember we only have $1000 and we are about to open a position much larger relative to our capital ( which we should never do because we can't afford to do that ) the 20:1 probably wont even let you place that trade if you don't have enough margin as collateral or if you could open the position you would have a very tiny amount of free margin left over, meaning a small pip movement against you will instantly blow up your $1000 account. On the 500:1 account you wouldn't need to put up as much margin as collateral with more free margin if the trade goes bad, but again a small movement could blow up your account. In this example, both accounts were dangerous because the lack of understanding position sizes, opening a position you can't afford to open. This is what the true danger is, not the leverage.
Even in the second example, the higher leverage would "margin call" you out later. So i would go as far to say that lower leverage is more dangerous for you because it margin calls you out faster and just by having a lower leverage doesn't stop you from opening big positions that can blow you up in a 5 pip movement anymore, any leverage size is dangerous if you're opening positions you can't afford to open. This is also taking into consideration that no risk management is being used, with risk management higher leverage is even more powerful.
ASIC believes lowering leverage will stop people opening positions that they can't afford. When the reality is no matter how much capital you have $500, $1000, $5000, $50,000, $500,000, $5,000,000. You don't open position sizes that will blow that capital up completely with small movements. The same thing can happen on a 20:1 or 500:1 account.
Leverage is a tool, use it, if your on a lower leverage already such as 20:1, 30:1 it means your country has been regulated and you already have harder trading conditions. Just remember higher leverage allows you to open larger position sizes in total for the amount of money you own, but the issue is NOT that your using the higher leverage but because you are opening positions you can't afford, for what ever reason that is, the only fix for this is education and will not be fixed by simply lowing leverage, since you can just as easy blow up your account on low leverage just as fast or if not faster.
So what is going on?
There might ( get your tinfoil hats on ) be more that is involved here, deeper than you think, other agendas to try and stop small time retail traders from making money via OTC products, theories such as governments not wanting their citizens to be traders, rather would prefer you to get out there and work a 9 to 5 instead. Effective ways to do this would be making conditions harder with a much larger barrier of entry and the best way to increase the barrier of entry for retail traders is to limit leverage, lower leverage means you need to put up more money, less breathing room for trades, lower potential. They are limiting your upside potential and the downside stays the same, a blown account is a blow account.
Think of leverage as a weapon, a person wielding a butchers knife can probably destroy a person wielding a steak knife, but both knifes can prove fatal. They want to make sure your holding the butter knife then tell you to butcher a cow with it. 30:1 leverage is still workable and can still be profitable, but not as profitable as 500:1 accounts. This is why they are allowing professionals to use high leverage, this gives them another edge over successful retail traders who will still be trying to butcher a cow with a butter knife, while they are slaying limbs off the cow with machetes.
It's a way to hamstring you and keep you away rather than trying to "protect" you. The real danger is not leverage, they are barking up the wrong tree, how convenient to be barking up the very tree most retail traders don't fully understand ( leverage) , pass legislation to make trading conditions harder and at the same time push the narrative that trading is dangerous by making it even harder. A full circle strategy to make your trading conditions worse, so you don't succeed.
Listen carefully especially if you trade with any of the brokers that have provided their submissions to ASIC. Brokers want to seem like they are on your side and so far some of the submissions ( i haven't read them all ) have brokers willing to drop their leverage down to 30:1 because they know by dropping the leverage down it will start margin calling out their clients at a much faster rate, causing more blown up accounts / abandoned accounts with residual margin called funds, but they also know that if they make trading environments too hard less people will trade or even worse move their funds elsewhere offshore to unregulated brokers that offer higher leverage.
Right now it's all just a proposal, but as governments expand and continue to gain more control over it's citizens, it's just a matter of time till it's law, it's up to you to be vocal about it, let your broker know that if they drop their leverage, you're out, force them to fight for you.
If you have any more information related to this, or have anything to add, post below. I'm not an expert at this technical law talk, i know that i do well with 500:1 leverage and turn profits with it, it would be harder for me to do on a lower leverage, this is the reason for my post.
All related documents HERE
CP-322 ( Consultation paper 322 ) & Submissions from brokers and others.
https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/consultation-papers/cp-322-product-intervention-otc-binary-options-and-cfds/
submitted by southpaw_destroyer to Forex [link] [comments]

9 Ideas to Make Money Online from Home

9 Ideas to Make Money Online from Home

9 Ideas to Make Money Online From Home
One of the best ways to generate a good income nowadays is to make money online, from home. This sounds amazing, it will help you generate the extra income you need to enjoy an amazing life. There will always be challenges as you try to make money from home, but the results can be staggering if you plan accordingly and focus on the best results and experience. The truth is that once you start connecting to various ways that help you make money online, things end up being a lot easier. But how can you achieve that? You just need to follow some of the ideas listed below, and they can make a huge difference all the time thanks to that.

1. Start a Social E-Commerce Business

This is a new but mature business model by sharing products to your social media and gain instant sales at home. But speaking of doing business at home, it sounds impossible for those who have no experience in this field. The complexity of managing stores online or the high learning curve is an invisible wall to those who want to give it a try. Barriers like an initial investment, time, skills and knowledge of doing business via the internet stop people from even stepping into the field of the business world.
However, there is an online platform called WED2C that is able to remove all these barriers and helps people to earn money by selling products online at home. It has a low threshold to learn and everyone with internet can start making money immediately. From student to retired people, if you have a passion for making money at home, then you should give it a try.
WED2C stands for “We Direct to Customer”, which means you sell the products directly to the customer by skipping all the complex processes involved in the traditional business model. You don’t have to worry about finding supplier, renting a warehouse, hiring customer service team because WED2C provides all the services and all you need is to advertise the product you are going to sell from WED2C.

2. Start a Dropshipping Business

https://preview.redd.it/tixr06vi0ms51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c229c427b68dcd955021cba20bc8c7866de076d1
The main idea behind dropshipping is that you create your own store and find a product supplier that will handle all orders and ship them properly. That means you just have to handle your store, the supplier will help you with everything else. It’s one of the best and simplest ways to make money online right now. On top of that, you have a variety of different options to pursue, and the experience itself can be a pretty impressive one. You just have to take that into account for the best results, and you will appreciate the outcome all the time.
Finding the right supplier can be challenging, since you need a professional supplier that has a lot of experience in the industry. A company like CJ Dropshipping gives you a lot of experience in this field, and the value is always among some of the best on the market. What really matters is to ensure that the supplier can fulfil all your orders.
Once you know that the supplier can connect to WooCommerce, Shopify, Shopee or Lazada, things will be a whole lot easier. The most important aspect is making sure that you generate a good income, and if you manage it correctly, nothing can stand in your way. It will lead to an incredible experience and outstanding results.
One thing to consider when it comes to dropshipping is the complexity of your store. When you want to make money online this way, a very good idea is to start working on a smaller store and then up the ante from there. It certainly helps quite a lot, especially if you are great at marketing. Experiment with a product, then go onward with the others and you will be more than ok every time.
Dropshipping tips:
· Pick the right supplier and focus on quality, that’s how you will be making more repeat sales
· Try to sell things that are different. If you sell the same stuff as your competitors, things will be a lot harder.
· Focus on a niche, it helps you generate better results and the value will be great in the long term
· Cash in on the seasonal merchandise, it comes in handy and you will find that it works very well during that specific season.
· Offering product bundles is a great idea, it comes in handy and it will generate more value for customers.
· Always provide the best customer service that you can. People expect assistance and support from you, provide that and they will be happy. Just try to take all of that into consideration for the best results.

3. Day Trading

Trading on the Forex market and stock markets, in general, is a very good idea if you have knowledge in this field. But don’t expect to just enter the market and become a millionaire. You can make money online this way, but the truth is that you need patience and a lot of focus. It does take time and effort to become great on the stock market.
First, you need to learn the ropes, you need to see when and how stocks tend to increase or decrease in value. You want to make sure that you avoid any possible issues that can arise, and you also need to focus on generating the best possible approach naturally. It helps a lot if you focus on growth and you know what you are getting into. Accessing the best systems in place can really help you more than you might imagine, and in the end that can be an incredible experience. Try to use that system adequately and remember to practice.
Many stock websites where you can start trading have a practice tool for virtual trading. You should use something like that all the time, as it gives you a good idea of what you can expect and what results you can obtain. It might not seem like a whole lot, but it will make a difference and that’s exactly what you want to go for.

4. Sell Your Photos

If you love taking pictures, then it makes sense to start earning online via selling pictures. There are a lot of stock photo websites that you can use to showcase your work and sell images there. It can help a lot, and you will be incredibly impressed with the value and experience every time. It’s imperative to know what you are getting into here however.
That means you need to invest money in a good camera and you want to have proper editing software too. Most of the time you can’t sell pictures without editing them to make sure that they look perfect. Thankfully, there are a plethora of cameras out there, although you may want to get a DSLR unit since these are offering the best quality and clarity that you may need. It’s important to take your time with this and adjust accordingly for the best results. On top of that, you also want to find a website where you can sell your images.
Websites like Getty Images, Shuttershock or Photoshelter are a great option, and they will provide you with a rather impressive experience and lots of value for money. Once you do that and create great pictures, you are good to go.

5. Copywriting

Copywriting is the art of promoting businesses through the power of words. You can make a substantial amount of money with the right business contracts and knowledge. Again, this is the type of work that requires a lot of attention from your side, and plenty of work. You will need to take some courses and find the right way to accumulate money online. It has the potential to really take things to the next level, if you do it right. The great thing about copywriting is that this is a great freelancing topic and one that will bring in a very good return on investment if you tackle it correctly.
You can also work with companies from all over the world too. It doesn’t matter, as long as they need English copywriting and you are vetted in that field, you will be good to go. Just focus on that, and you will find yourself getting a much better return on investment than you realize. Make sure that you always improve and brush up your skills for the best results, that’s what will give you amazing results in the end. It’s also possible to focus on proofreading or editing if you have these skills.

6. Online Tutoring/Create Your Own Course

Teaching other people about topics that you already mastered sounds great, and it can be very lucrative from a financial standpoint. The best thing you can do here is to take your time, study the market and see how you can tackle everything in a proper manner. Ideally, you want to make sure that you find the right tutoring jobs, so try to advertise on a variety of tutoring websites like Tutors.com or Tutorme.com.
There are a lot of tutoring opportunities, and you can cover English, other languages or more specialized topics. It’s also a good idea to create your own online course on a platform like Udemy. That helps a lot because it allows you to showcase your skills and teach people, while also being able to make money online passively.
Yes, here you just need to record yourself, edit the videos and then upload the content. You will be making money for every view you receive, and that’s really helpful. You will certainly appreciate the results and value provided this way, and the quality certainly shines thanks to that. It’s one of those things that you do not want to miss.

7. Write Your Own Ebook and Publish It Online

Ebooks are a hot commodity, a lot of people love reading them, and if you write great ebooks you can make quite a lot of money. The best thing that you can do is to take your time, create high-quality ebooks and publish them on Barnes and Noble, Amazon or any other similar website. The challenge here is that you will find a lot of books on that topic, so the best approach is to take your time and pick the right topic, something that you can’t find anywhere else.
A great, unique ebook can sell quite well if you price it properly. The truth is that people want to learn something new all the time, or they just want to unwind and read a relaxing book. Just try to make sure that you pick the right ideas and create an enticing, unique book. Once you do that, things will be a whole lot easier, and that’s exactly what you want to go for in a situation like this.

9. Start a Blog

Yes, blogging can be very lucrative and you can make money online with it. The truth is that blogging can give you a really good return on investment, especially if you stick to it. Granted, it will take some time to build up a great blog, but if you know how to do it properly and work hard to achieve it, you will get there. Blogging is cool because you get to write about anything you want. It’s your own little space on the internet where you can share ideas, educate others and inform them.
You can place ads on your blog to make money online, or you can start affiliate marketing. Basically, here you promote products created by others in your content and when people buy that item you get paid a commission. It’s one of the best options on the market to make money online from home, and it totally works for most people.
On your blog you can also have paid posts from other people, you can also sell your own ebook or any other item like that. It works nicely and people love this system because it brings in front a very good set of ideas. You do want to check it out for yourself, and the payoff can be great.

9. Run a YouTube Channel

Posting videos on YouTube is also very lucrative. The truth is that you can get a very good return on investment just by enjoying the games and having fun. It’s a very cool, fun game to enjoy and you can have an extraordinary ROI if you handle it the right way. That means posting content almost daily, finding a lot of great ideas for your audience, communicating with them and also helping them as needed.
There are multiple methods to make money on YouTube, that can be from advertising, from sponsorships or via selling your own products if you want. You’re also not limited when it comes to what you want to talk about. You just need to be consistent, stick to the YouTube guidelines and just provide good value. It can be well worth it.

Conclusion

As you can see, there are tons of ways to make money online. You just need to find the right option to suit your needs and the payoff can be great in the long run. We recommend you to use these tips if you’re looking to make money online. Just make sure that you stick to it, take your time and you will be incredibly impressed with how much you can earn just via working from home!
submitted by WED2C_OFCL to u/WED2C_OFCL [link] [comments]

Factset DD

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down
FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp

FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:

So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%

EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.

P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.

Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016

Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.

SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
submitted by WannabeStonks69 to investing [link] [comments]

FDS DD

Factset: How You can Invest in Hedge Funds’ Biggest Investment
Tl;dr FactSet is the most undervalued widespread SaaS/IT solution stock that exists
If any of you have relevant experience or are friends with people in Investment Banking/other high finance, you know that Factset is the lifeblood of their financial analysis toolkit if and when it’s not Bloomberg, which isn’t even publicly traded. Factset has been around since 1978 and it’s considered a staple like Bloomberg in many wealth management firms, and it offers some of the easiest to access and understandable financial data so many newer firms focused less on trading are switching to Factset because it has a lot of the same data Bloomberg offers for half the cost. When it comes to modern financial data, Factset outcompetes Reuters and arguably Bloomberg as well due to their API services which makes Factset much more preferable for quantitative divisions of banks/hedge funds as API integration with Python/R is the most important factor for vast data lakes of financial data, this suggests Factset will be much more prepared for programming making its way into traditional finance fields. According to Factset, their mission for data delivery is to: “Integrate the data you need with your applications, web portals, and statistical packages. Whether you need market, company, or alternative data, FactSet flexible data delivery services give you normalized data through APIs and a direct delivery of local copies of standard data feeds. Our unique symbology links and aggregates a variety of content sources to ensure consistency, transparency, and data integrity across your business. Build financial models and power customized applications with FactSet APIs in our developer portal”. Their technical focus for their data delivery system alone should make it stand out compared to Bloomberg, whose UI is far more outdated and complex on top of not being as technically developed as Factset’s. Factset is the key provider of buy-side portfolio analysis for IBs, Hedge funds, and Private Equity firms, and it’s making its way into non-quantitative hedge funds as well because quantitative portfolio management makes automation of risk management and the application of portfolio theory so much easier, and to top it off, Factset’s scenario analysis and simulation is unique in its class. Factset also is able to automate trades based on individual manager risk tolerance and ML optimization for Forex trading as well. Not only does Factset provide solutions for financial companies, they are branching out to all corporations now and providing quantitative analytics for them in the areas of “corporate development, M&A, strategy, treasury, financial planning and analysis, and investor relations workflows”. Factset will eventually in my opinion reach out to Insurance Risk Management a lot more in the future as that’s a huge industry which has yet to see much automation of risk management yet, and with the field wide open, Factset will be the first to take advantage without a shadow of a doubt. So let’s dig into the company’s financials now:
Their latest 8k filing reported the following:
Revenue increased 2.6%, or $9.6 million, to $374.1 million compared with $364.5 million for the same period in fiscal 2019. The increase is primarily due to higher sales of analytics, content and technology solutions (CTS) and wealth management solutions.
Annual Subscription Value (ASV) plus professional services was $1.52 billion at May 31, 2020, compared with $1.45 billion at May 31, 2019. The organic growth rate, which excludes the effects of acquisitions, dispositions, and foreign currency movements, was 5.0%. The primary contributors to this growth rate were higher sales in FactSet's wealth and research workflow solutions and a price increase in the Company's international region
Adjusted operating margin improved to 35.5% compared with 34.0% in the prior year period primarily as a result of reduced employee-related operating expenses due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) increased 11.0% to $2.63 compared with $2.37 for the same period in fiscal 2019.
Adjusted diluted EPS rose 9.2% to $2.86 compared with $2.62 in the prior year period primarily driven by an improvement in operating results.
The Company’s effective tax rate for the third quarter decreased to 15.0% compared with 18.6% a year ago, primarily due to an income tax expense in the prior year related to finalizing the Company's tax returns with no similar event for the three months ended May 31, 2020.
FactSet increased its quarterly dividend by $0.05 per share or 7% to $0.77 marking the fifteenth consecutive year the Company has increased dividends, highlighting its continued commitment to returning value to shareholders.
As you can see, there’s not much of a negative sign in sight here.
It makes sense considering how FactSet’s FCF has never slowed down

FactSet’s annual subscriptions and professional services have made its way to foreign and developing markets, and many of them are opting for FactSet’s cheaper services to reduce costs and still get copious amounts of data and models to work with.
Here’s what FactSet had to say regarding its competitive position within the market of providing financial data in its last 10k: “Despite competing products and services, we enjoy high barriers to entry and believe it would be difficult for another vendor to quickly replicate the extensive databases we currently offer. Through our in-depth analytics and client service, we believe we can offer clients a more comprehensive solution with one of the broadest sets of functionalities, through a desktop or mobile user interface or through a standardized or bespoke data feed.” And FactSet is confident that their ML services cannot be replaced by anybody else in the industry either: “In addition, our applications, including our client support and service offerings, are entrenched in the workflow of many financial professionals given the downloading functions and portfolio analysis/screening capabilities offered. We are entrusted with significant amounts of our clients' own proprietary data, including portfolio holdings. As a result, our products have become central to our clients’ investment analysis and decision-making.” (https://last10k.com/sec-filings/fds#link_fullReport), if you read the full report and compare it to the most recent 8K, you’ll find that the real expenses this quarter were far lower than expected by the last 10k as there was a lower than expected tax rate and a 3% increase in expected operating margin from the expected figure as well. The company also reports a 90% customer retention rate over 15 years, so you know that they’re not lying when they say the clients need them for all sorts of financial data whether it’s for M&A or wealth management and Equity analysis:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/factset.asp
FactSet also has remarkably good cash conversion considering it’s a subscription based company, a company structure which usually takes on too much leverage. Speaking of leverage, FDS had taken on a lot of leverage in 2015:
So what’s that about? Why were FactSet’s long term debts at 0 and all of a sudden why’d the spike up? Well usually for a company that’s non-cyclical and has a well-established product (like FactSet) leverage can actually be good at amplifying returns, so FDS used this to their advantage and this was able to help the share’s price during 2015. Also, as you can see debt/ebitda is beginning a rapid decline anyway. This only adds to my theory that FactSet is trying to expand into new playing fields. FactSet obviously didn’t need the leverage to cover their normal costs, because they have always had consistently growing margins and revenue so the debt financing was only for the sake of financing growth. And this debt can be considered covered and paid off, considering the net income growth of 32% between 2018 and 2019 alone and the EPS growth of 33%
EBITDA has virtually been exponential for FactSet for a while because of the bang-for-buck for their well-known product, but now as FactSet ventures into algorithmic trading and corporate development the scope for growth is broadly expanded.
P/E has declined in the past 2 years, making it a great time to buy.
Increasing ROE despite lowering of leverage post 2016
Mountains of cash have been piling up in the coffers increasing chances of increased dividends for shareholders (imo dividend is too low right now, but increasing it will tempt more investors into it), and on top of that in the last 10k a large buyback expansion program was implemented for $210m worth of shares, which shows how confident they are in the company itself.
SGA expense/Gross profit has been declining despite expansion of offices
I’m a bit concerned about the skin in the game leadership has in this company, since very few executives/board members have significant holdings in the company, but the CEO himself is a FactSet veteran, and knows his way around the company. On top of that, Bloomberg remains king for trading and the fixed income security market, and Reuters beats out FactSet here as well. If FactSet really wants to increase cash flow sources, the expansion into insurance and corp dev has to be successful.
Summary: FactSet has a lot of growth still left in its industry which is already fast-growing in and of itself, and it only has more potential at its current valuation. Earnings September 24th should be a massive beat due to investment banking demand and growth plus Hedge fund requirements for data and portfolio management hasn’t gone anywhere and has likely increased due to more market opportunities to buy-in.
Calls have shitty greeks, but if you're ballsy October 450s LOL, I'm holding shares
I’d say it’s a great long term investment, and it should at least be on your watchlist.
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